“As far as this year is concerned, local protection such as project binding still exists, but after next year, passenger cars will go to the market track.” The head of the youth auto market department predicted that after the subsidies fell again in 2019, the bus will be changed from policy to Market leading. Because this year's view, the bicycle country can get up to 180,000, which is still tempting. The local government still has certain protection measures for local enterprises in terms of GDP, fiscal revenue, employment, etc., but this phenomenon will be greatly increased in 2019. cut back.
"For example, a bus company bids, if the bicycle price of a foreign company is 50,000-100,000 yuan lower than its own company, but in the end, the company in the province won the bid, then the bus company will definitely be punished. Therefore, basically can judge, the place Sexual protection will become ineffective next year, and 2019 will be the market year for the passenger car sector, with vehicle quality and price becoming the main competitiveness."
Although 2019 is likely to become a market year, its performance may not be optimistic. In the middle of the car era, Guo believes that, first of all, China's overall economic situation will directly affect the purchasing power of the passenger car market, and the impact of the economic environment will be reflected in 2019. Second, with the subsidies in 2019, it will face another decline, coupled with industrial maturity. Continuous improvement will further intensify competition among enterprises.
In Guo's opinion, under the current unstable factors such as Sino-US trade and China's economic trend, the long-term development of the new energy bus industry is not well evaluated, but if China's economic development is good, the new energy bus will maintain 80,000 vehicles per year. The scale of production and sales is not difficult, because large-scale procurement groups such as bus companies have a certain number of vehicle renewals every year.
On the other hand, Guo believes that exports are likely to become a new growth point in the field of new energy buses. It is understood that the powerful Yutong, BYD, etc. have exported new energy buses to foreign countries. The foreign markets are mainly concentrated in developed countries. This is because road facilities and economic development in developed countries can form a certain just-needed market, while foreign new energy vehicle technology and quality are far less than the development of domestic enterprises.
Based on the above analysis, the new energy bus sector will have a production and sales scale of about 80,000 units this year. If China's economic development is in good shape, it will maintain this scale.
